Thoughts on The Fantasy Football Running Backs
If you know me, I love a few things: full-blown existential crises and fantasy football. These two facts are often related. I've done fantasy football for almost a decade (I forgot when I started, but I did it in high school/middle school for a while, then took a break and have been entirely depraved for the last three seasons), Leading to finals and championships the previous few seasons.
I've done a LOT of best-ball drafts this season. I won't say the number, but let's say it's safe to assume, unless you're a depraved best-ball fiend, I've been in more draft rooms this season than you. (This is not a brag; you are probably going out, enjoying your life, touching grass, and that's better for you, I promise)
These notes are considered more so with redraft in mind, but given I do a lot of best ball drafts, they may be some overlay in these players, but for redraft, I have different strategies.
These are not your traditional rankings. As outlined in my other article, I think traditional rankings confuse the less invested fantasy player as they lack context for their league. Know your league rules. The deeper your bench, the more fun you can have with drafting rookie or young running backs with high upside but minimal cost. Hero RB may be a good strategy in smaller leagues or leagues with smaller benches, especially this year.
Articles for the other positions will come out soon!
My RB Targets
Who Momma Wants
For running back, I often think about the team itself more, and that's how I try to target. I look for teams with good offenses or teams I trust to run the ball well/often. As a result, I try to leave a draft with at least one piece in the offenses: Chargers, 49ers, Dolphins, Lions, Rams, and Cardinals. I think all of these teams will have good offenses and a lot of contributions from the ground.
Chargers: J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are some of my most drafted players this off-season. The Chargers coaching staff intends to run the ball, and as we saw with their blocking schemes over the summer, they plan to do it well. Their runners got the furthest before being touched by a defender. Joe Alt already looks like a game-changing lineman. Fantasy players are scared of these two because of their injury history. Gus Edwards got a lot of touchdowns last year, and J.K Dobbins has been hyped up this off-season by his coaching staff. Because people are scared of these two, I think there is a lot of value. I like to draft like I'm right, and if I'm right, and either one of them is there the whole season, you're talking about an RB2 at minimum. Kimani Vidal is an option in deeper leagues if they're too rich for your blood. There were reports that he may be cut from the team, but he'll still be there. However, the fear of him being cut causes a lot of fantasy players to be scared, so there's even more value there, with little risk.
49ers: I want a piece of their offense in every draft. This one is simple. I think in most formats, CMC should still be the first pick. Again, I like to draft like I'm right, and if he doesn't get hurt, he's got the highest floor of any fantasy player in the league, with the potential for one of the highest ceilings. Assuming you can't get him, I like to target Jordan Mason. During the season, if anyone appears to take the RB2 role from Mason, I will try to invest in that player. If you can't get them, please try to get players from their offense. It's such a good offense, which pains me to say as a Rams fan. Note: After being published, Elijah Mitchell will be out, meaning more reason to get Mason, but Mason will likely not be as late in drafts with a more apparent second-string role.
Dolphins: Achane and Mostert can be fantasy-relevant and are one of two teams where I'm okay with having multiple pieces from that backfield. Achane play for play last year was one of the best fantasy assets. Mostert was among the best draft values the previous year and is still a value pick this year. Jaylen Wright, their new rookie, fits excellently into this scheme. Achane is a risky pick, and I'm grateful to be in multiple leagues so I can enjoy him in at least one but possibly avoid him in the rest. However, if he hits, I think Achane can once again be the best play-for-play pick in fantasy. He's also played wide receiver sometimes in the pre-season, meaning he could increase his value with targets, and Mostert's value could increase by being in the backfield. Miami's offense has been a great ride (especially early season) in the last few years. Please get on the ride again; everyone is tall enough for this ride.
Lions: I'll be brief with this one. Gibbs is super talented and ended amazingly last year. Montgomery was more effective than people remember because they viewed him last year as a barrier to a Gibbs breakout. I think the Lions will have the best offense in the league. I think both players will be fantasy-relevant, and an injury to one makes the other a smash play.
Rams: The Rams are running back room... I will always want to be part of the game with Sean Mcvay as coach, but it can sometimes be a frustrating ride. When Kyren was drafted two years ago, I was high on him that off-season since vibes with Cam Akers seemed off. And then I was wrong that year... then I was right the following year. The point is that there is always value there; however, this year, I do not think it will be a frustrating or confusing experience as in the past. Kyren will get a little less work than last year, but not so much, so it'll hurt him in fantasy. I think there is a world where his lower volume is better since he could be more efficient and less likely to get hurt. Blake Corum was drafted by the Rams this year, and his player comp for some in the industry was Kyren himself. McVay believes the run opens up the pass, and we've seen from his offenses how much more dynamic they are when they are effective at running the ball. This is the second team where I think having both players makes sense. If Kyren goes down, I think it's a clear pass-off to Corum. It won't be like previous seasons where Ronnie Rivers or a random Darrell Henderson have significant games. I want this two-headed monster.
Cardinals: The Cardinals last year were much better than they should have been. In the first part of the season, they were competitive in games they shouldn't have been, and once they got Kyler back, they had a good offense. Trey McBride was one of the best TEs. Now they've added Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson. James Conner is a great pick, especially for the early season. Last year, he did everything: he ran, he caught the ball, and he was effective while doing so. He is older and likely to miss a game or two, which is where his rookie Benson could have a lot of potential.
Honorable mentions in this category would be the Bengals RB room, which looks pretty split (which is why there will be value, but not enough for me to stake a claim in it right now), and the Cowboys RB room. The Cowboys offense should be good. I like Rico Dowdle in the room currently. Both teams seem likely to sign another RB, so that's why they are just an honorable mention, but I would be aggressive with these backfields after the first game or two if it seems like anyone has a lock on the carriers.
Another honorable mention will be the Bears' backfield. Money suggests Swift should get the leading role, but I think this could be a two—or three-headed monster. I like drafting Herbert, but this is another team I'd be aggressive with reading the tea leaves at the season's opening.
The last honorable mention would be the Falcons. Bijan is excellent, and Allgeier is a quality back. They are not higher up for me as they will probably pass more with a new coordinator and Kirk Cousins, which could hurt the running game. Usage will be better for these two. Bijan is high-cost, so if you want him to go, get him, but I think Allgeier has a lot of value as a backup and possible flex value on his own.
Early Season Targets:
ReDraft
If you go heavy in other positions at the draft, I think it's good to try to get some early-season value. You can find good RBs on the waiver wire as players miss games later in the season. In general, I think attacking the season differently as it progresses is essential for RB, so it's important to start strong. RBs get hurt more, so there is more of a need to dumpster dive during the waiver period. I will mention specific players versus teams, unlike in the previous section.
Chubba Hubbard constantly gets glanced over, but he doesn't have much competition in a Caroline offense that liked to run the ball last year. His backup, Rookie Jonathan Brooks, will start the year on the PUP list. He's been effective when given the chance. I think he's a better player than people give him credit for. He is the perfect player to provide you with useable weeks at the beginning.
Josh Jacobs: I think he's an excellent pick for the whole year, but he'll get crazy volume early on with his best competition until Marshoyn Lloyd returns at the earliest week 5. I think Jacobs will likely be good all year, but he's the perfect candidate to be hot at the beginning of the year and trade him halfway through to someone else for some high value. Historically, he has a lot of usage, so my concern would be how his body holds up throughout a season. But early on, barring injury, he should be a great asset on what I think is an excellent Packers Roster. I think he can still be a great player all season, but pay attention beyond the stats to see if he looks good or is just getting the volume. Note: Now AJ Dillion is out for the season right now, as I published this—even more reason to take him.
Javonte Williams: He didn't look great last season. I had him, and it was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think Bo Nix will have many check-downs to the RB position. Sean Payton usually has an effective run game. Behind Williams, you have Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime. McLaughlin will have some fun and big plays. Estime will be great on the goalline, but I think those two players will be brought along as the season progresses. I think Williams will start as the workhorse back. He has looked better this pre-season. And there are lots of examples of players looking better after an ACL tear two seasons after it happened, meaning Williams has a good chance at being better than he was last year, which will result in more playing time. Just a few years ago, he was a very high pick in the dynasty because of his talent coming out of college. If we see any bit of that, he'd be a great pick with where he is going in drafts.
Kenneth Walker: I think he's my favorite RB at ADP. His coaches have raved about him in a way that makes it feel like he will get so much for the work. Charbonnet, his backup, is dealing with some minor injuries. Few players can hit a homerun 60-yard touchdown like Walker; barring injury, he will be a great pick, especially early season. Their offensive line is of concern, but I'm hoping the passing game can open up the box a little bit.
Joe Mixon: I'll be honest, I don't want to draft him. But process-wise, he makes a lot of sense. Houston will be a great offense. He won't have much real competition other than Dameon Pierce (where vibes are bad) or the ghost of Cam Akers (who admittedly has looked pretty solid for a few pre-reason runs).
Tony Pollard: Usage rates suggest he'll get more work than Tyjae Spears. I like both at value, but I imagine Pollard will start the year with more work. I worry about Levis at QB, but I could also see a lot of wild and crazy games with the Titans (akin to when Winston was on the Buccaneers)
Jerome Ford: Nick Chubb may be out awhile, and even when he comes back may not be himself. There isn't too much competition behind Ford, especially with Foreman possibly now gone. Ford was effective last year when given the opportunity and is likely a great choice for early-season production.
Hold Me. I'm Scared.
Where I'm not targetting
The Patriots: I recently have liked to target Gibson in the best ball because he's so late, and I think he could get more work than people think. And that's why I'm scared of this backfield in redraft leagues. I worry about both players on what was a terrible Patriots team last year. With rookie Drake Maye probably taking touches away, Antonio Gibson, who is on his second team, and Rehmondre Stevenson, who is older than Gibson (I was shocked, too). I worry about this offense and its pieces. If you want to take one and see, I'd be quick to move on.
The Commanders: While I like Brian Robinson Jr. and hope Austin Eckler has more in the tank, this team scares me for RB. They have a terrible offensive line, which will not allow many holes for the runners. They have a running QB who likes to scramble at historic rates and will need to scramble with this line. I think process-wise, this is a good running back room to avoid.
Saints: Alvin Kamara should only be drafted in PPR leagues. He will get a lot of catches, but he'll be inefficient. Behind him, you have Kendre Miller, who Dennis Allen (his coach) seems to hate him. He'll start the year on the PUP. The best backup, Jamal Williams, only got a touchdown last year because his teammates betrayed Dennis Allen on the goal line so he could score (which was so funny; Dennis Allen does not like fun). I think it's easy to want to take Kamara because of the value, but I am out. Also, I don't even know if Carr makes it the whole year. I think this team will be in disarray at some point during the season.
Tampa Bay: I feel the least confident about this take on the teams on this list, but I'm worried the Buccaners run game for fantasy. They have a new offensive coordinator. White was outstanding last year, but mainly because of PPR usage. I think he's better than people give him credit for, but their line has some issues. They also drafted Bucky Irving, who could eventually cut into that volume, making White riskier. (Bucky may be a good stash at value, but even his being good doesn't negate the offensive line/coaching change worries). Also, rookie WR McMillian will be good enough to remove some targets from the RB room.
My Biggest Conflict
The Steelers: Najee Harris has burned people enough that his ADP is under his abilities. Jaylen Warren is entertaining and is a good running back, too. Arthur Smith's offenses are usually excellent in the run and run-heavy. HOWEVER, I can see Cordelle Patterson taking away essential touches. Russell Wilson doesn't run too much anymore, but I could see that being utilized more. If Fields ever sees action, he'll run a lot, too. So you could see a lot of random carries lost to the main two running backs. This is hard for me since I think Najee and Jaylen are good. On paper, this is an excellent backfield to target, but I think the reality of it will be painful for fantasy but probably good for real-life football. If you had any Falcons last year, you already know it can be hard to predict where Smith will direct important touches, which resulted in a frustrating fantasy experience last year. I could see that happening once again on a new team.
Late Round/Rookie RBs
My favorite rookies
There is no order for this, but there are some rookies you may want to target and see. Hopefully, this will be helpful if you haven't been paying attention to rookies.
Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Jaylen Wright, and Bucky Irving should be discussed here. They are potentially league-winning players if the running back(s) ahead of them go down. I'd consider Bucky in the tier below the other three because I am concerned about Tampa, as outlined above.
Ray Davis: Back up to James Cook in Buffalo. He will likely get goalline usage. Bills went run-heavy at the end of last year and won with it. They'll stick to the run game but want to give Cook some fresh air. Ray Davis is a good choice for this.
Braelon Allen: Breece's backup. He probably will get more usage than the other backups in the past, as he's probably better than what they've had, and I think a team that wants to contend for the playoffs is smart to ease up on their workhorse running back when you can. He seems to be a good enough player to get some usage.
Kimani Vidal: He's been mentioned before in this article. I think the Chargers running game will dominate. He has two "injury-prone" running backs in front of him. I think he makes a lot of sense as a stash and see player
Jonathan Brooks: If you have an IR slot, maybe take him with a late pick. He has a lot of talent. The case against him is that he's hurt, and if the Panthers are bad again, you could see them relying more on Chubba Hubbard rather than giving wear and tear to their rookie if you don't have an IR. He'd be a great player to target in week 3, right before the PUP players return, and you won't have to blow considerable FAAB or a waiver claim on him. I could see in some leagues him being on rosters the whole time, but other home leagues may be scared/not know him. He is riskier than the above ones, but in the right scenario, he is the most important running back as he has the most straightforward path to RB 1 work for these rookies.
Tank Bigbsy: He is not a rookie (he might as well be), and this is not a troll. He is going undrafted in some leagues. Last year, he was regulated to the Dog House after some boneheaded plays. Travis Etienne started last year red-hot, but as the season progressed, he did worse, and so did the team. You have to give him less workload if you are the Jaguars, and I think they will. I believe in this take since the Jags went from surefire playoff contenders to missing out; I think when it happens like that, you do things differently the next year. Quotes out of camp this summer for Tank have significantly improved from last year. Also, he has said things that make me believe he is now ready for a moment. I don't think he was last year. As a last-round flier, I think you could do much worse. I would be willing to cut him quickly if it doesn't appear that way, but I don't think he's a horrible option, especially on a team that went WR in the fantasy draft. I think the Jags will have an improved offense from last year.
Carson Steele: DO NOT DRAFT HIM IN SHALLOW LEGUES PLS... However, in deep leagues, the possible second RB on the Chiefs. Yes, please. He's an undrafted player, but the Chiefs don't care about that. Pacheco is a good option, but he plays like he's on a literal battlefield, so I think Reid and Company will give him some plays off. I think Kelce will be used less in the passing game to protect his body for the playoffs. I think there will be more running because... it worked last year. The WR room is improved but young, so leaning on the run game makes sense. This team is too good to be going 100% all season probably. They want that three-peat, so they'll prioritize their energy and resources when prepping for the playoffs. If no one in the West can push them or other teams in the AFC for that 1 seed, they'll likely coast into the playoffs. If this is true, this is an argument for Steele, as I could see him absorbing more work during the year, especially in games they're way ahead.
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